基于贝叶斯方法的贵州高原百花水库水体营养盐变化及评价(2014—2018年)     

袁振辉  李秋华  何应  马欣洋  韩孟书  孙荣国  张华俊 《湖泊科学》2019,31(6):1623-1636

为了确定百花水库营养盐变化特征,选取百花水库5个监测点2014年1月-2018年7月共28个月份的水质实测数据,分析溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总磷和总氮的年际变化特征.采用基于熵权法赋权的贝叶斯理论对5个监测点的水质综合状况进行评价,并结合水库的实际状况,从生态修复、工业污染源、沉积物中营养盐、水库季节性热分层及农业与生活污染源5个方面对其水质变化的影响因素进行分析.结果表明:2014-2018年水体环境波动较大;除总氮外,各污染指标浓度均有不同程度的下降;综合水质后验概率表明百花水库水质有逐渐变差的趋势;总氮和总磷治理应成为百花水库污染治理的主要方面;生态修复工程的开展和工业污染源的削减是百花水库水质转好的主要影响因素,农业与生活污染源的增加是百花水库水质转差的主要影响因素.  相似文献   

三峡水库175 m试验性蓄水期调度运行对洞庭湖蓄水量变化的影响     

付湘  赵秋湘  孙昭华 《湖泊科学》2019,31(6):1713-1725

长江干流与洞庭湖存在复杂的并联型分汇关系,当三峡水库调度改变长江径流过程时,会引起洞庭湖年内槽蓄量的变化,对于洞庭湖地区防洪、水资源配置和水环境保护产生显著的影响.本文建立了枝城至螺山站的荆江-洞庭湖水流模型,利用2008-2017年的三峡水库实际调度日数据,分析有、无三峡水库调度两种情况下洞庭湖槽蓄量的变化过程,同时利用建库前和近期的水位流量关系反映河道过流能力,分析了河道调整的影响.结果表明:由河道调整引起的槽蓄量变化在汛前消落期、汛期、汛末蓄水期和枯水期分别为-3.06%、0.12%、-0.01%和-13.31%.有三峡水库影响情况下,汛前消落期由于荆江"三口"进入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流增加23.94%,洞庭湖出口处城陵矶多年平均水位升高0.53 m,阻碍了洞庭湖出流,洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量增长13.30%;汛期由于荆江"三口"分流量减少3.54%,城陵矶水位降低0.02 m导致出湖流量增多,因此洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少0.20%;在汛末蓄水期,荆江"三口"分入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流量减少37.18%,城陵矶多年平均水位降低1.33 m,导致出湖流量增多,因而洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少27.74%;在枯水期,荆江"三口"多年平均总径流量增加5.61%,城陵矶多年平均水位上升0.07 m,最终洞庭湖多年平均枯期槽蓄量增加2.96%.  相似文献   

Coupling relationship between reservoir diagenesis and hydrocarbon accumulation in Lower Cretaceous Yingcheng Formation of Dongling,Changling fault depression,Songliao Basin,Northeast China     

《China Geology》2020,3(2):247-261

The Lower Cretaceous Yingcheng Formation in the southern Songliao Basin is the typical tight oil sandstone in China. In order to better predict the petrophysical properties of the tight sandstone reservoirs in the Lower Cretaceous Yingcheng Formation, Songliao Basin, Northeast China, the diagenesis and porosity evolution was investigated using a suite of petrographic and geochemical techniques including thin section analysis, scanning electron microscopy, mercury intrusion and fluid inclusion analysis, on a set of selected tight sandstone samples. Combined with the histories of burial evolution, organic matter thermal evolution and hydrocarbon charge, the matching relationship between reservoir porosity evolution and hydrocarbon accumulation history is analyzed. The result showed that the tight sandstone reservoirs characterized of being controlled by deposition, predominated by compaction, improved by dissolution and enhanced by cementation. The hydrocarbon accumulation period was investigated using a suite of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion history, microfluorescence determination and temperature measurement technology. According to the homogenization temperature of the inclusions and the history of burial evolution, Yingcheng Formation has mainly two phases hydrocarbon accumulation. The first phase of oil and gas is charged before the reservoir is tightened, the oil and gas generated by Shahezi source rocks enter the sand body of Yingcheng Formation, influenced by the carrying capability of sand conducting layer, oil and gas is mainly conducted by the better properties and higher connectivity sand body and enriched in the east, which belongs to the type of densification after hydrocarbon accumulation. The second phase of oil and gas charge after densification, which belongs to the type of densification before the hydrocarbon accumulation.  相似文献   

Deep neural network application for 4D seismic inversion to changes in pressure and saturation: Optimizing the use of synthetic training datasets     

Gustavo Côrte  Jesper Dramsch  Hamed Amini  Colin MacBeth 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(7):2164-2185

In this work, we tackle the challenge of quantitative estimation of reservoir dynamic property variations during a period of production, directly from four-dimensional seismic data in the amplitude domain. We employ a deep neural network to invert four-dimensional seismic amplitude maps to the simultaneous changes in pressure, water and gas saturations. The method is applied to a real field data case, where, as is common in such applications, the data measured at the wells are insufficient for properly training deep neural networks, thus, the network is trained on synthetic data. Training on synthetic data offers much freedom in designing a training dataset, therefore, it is important to understand the impact of the data distribution on the inversion results. To define the best way to construct a synthetic training dataset, we perform a study on four different approaches to populating the training set making remarks on data sizes, network generality and the impact of physics-based constraints. Using the results of a reservoir simulation model to populate our training datasets, we demonstrate the benefits of restricting training samples to fluid flow consistent combinations in the dynamic reservoir property domain. With this the network learns the physical correlations present in the training set, incorporating this information into the inference process, which allows it to make inferences on properties to which the seismic data are most uncertain. Additionally, we demonstrate the importance of applying regularization techniques such as adding noise to the synthetic data for training and show a possibility of estimating uncertainties in the inversion results by training multiple networks.  相似文献   

Evaluation of clayed silt properties on the behavior of hydrate production in South China Sea     

《China Geology》2020,3(3):362-368

Gas hydrate is one kind of potential energy resources that is buried under deep seafloor or frozen areas. The first trial offshore production from the silty reservoir was conducted in the South China Sea by the China Geological Survey (CGS). During this test, there were many unique characteristics different from the sand reservoir, which was believed to be related to the clayed silt physical properties. In this paper, simulation experiments, facilities analysis, and theoretical calculation were used to confirm the hydrate structure, reservoir thermo-physical property, and bond water movement rule. And the behavior of how they affected production efficiency was analyzed. The results showed that: It was reasonable to use the structure I rather than structure II methane hydrate phase equilibrium data to make the production plan; the dissociation heat absorbed by hydrate was large enough to cause hydrate self-protection or reformation depend on the reservoir thermal transfer and gas supply; clayed silt got better thermal conductivity compared to coarse grain, but poor thermal convection especially with hydrate; clayed silt sediment was easy to bond water, but the irreducible water can be exchanged to free water under high production pressure, and the most obvious pressure range of water increment was 1.9–4.9 MPa.  相似文献   

Seismic fracture evaluation of diaphragm joints in welded beam-to-box column moment connections     

Ching-Yi Tsai  Keh-Chyuan Tsai  Chao-Hsien Li  Chung-Che Wu  Ker-Chun Lin  Sheng-Jhih Jhuang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(13):1344-1362

Steel box columns are widely used in steel building structures in Taiwan due to their dual strong axes. To transfer the beam-end moment to the column, diaphragm plates of the same thickness and elevations as the beam flanges are usually welded inside the box column. The electro-slag welding (ESW) process is widely used to connect the diaphragms to the column flanges in Taiwan because of its convenience and efficiency. However, ESW may increase the hardness of the welds and heat-affected zones (HAZs), while reducing the Charpy-V notch strength in the HAZ. This situation can cause premature fracture of the diaphragm-to-column flange welds before a large plastic rotation is developed in the beam-to-box column joints. To quantify the critical eccentricity and the effectiveness of fracture prediction, this study uses fracture prediction models and finite element model (FEM) analysis to correlate the test results. In this study, two beam-to-box column connection subassembly tests are conducted with different loading protocols and ESW chamber shapes. To implement a fracture prediction model, the material parameters are established from circumferential notched tensile tests and FEM analysis. Test results indicate that the fracture instances can be predicted on the basis of the cumulative plastic deformation in the HAZs. Analytical results indicate that fracture instances and locations are sensitive to the relative locations of the ESW joints and beam flange. Tests also confirm that the possible fracture of the diaphragm-to-column flange joints can be mitigated by enlarging the chamber of the ESW joint.  相似文献   

不锈钢纤维网对热压铁基预合金胎体抗冲击韧性的影响          下载免费PDF全文

孙吉伟  吴海霞  沈立娜  杨甘生 《探矿工程》2020,47(2):73-77

针对孕镶金刚石钻头在孔底钻进时受到各种冲击力而导致胎体出现裂纹甚至断裂的问题，提出了应用不锈钢纤维网提高胎体抗冲击韧性的方法。通过控制纤维网的摆放位置、目数和层数3个变量，测试了不同组合变量下的胎体抗冲击韧性。通过试验得到：（1）不锈钢纤维网能有效提高胎体的抗冲击韧性，而且X轴位置效果更好；（2）当纤维网的目数相同时，胎体抗冲击韧性随纤维网层数的增加而减小；（3）在纤维网层数相同的情况下，随着纤维网目数的增加，胎体抗冲击韧性呈现先增大后减小的趋势。当添加30目单层纤维网时，胎体的抗冲击韧性达到最大值。通过观察冲击断口、分析胎体断裂机理，解释了出现这种规律的原因，并提出了进一步优化胎体抗冲击韧性的方法。  相似文献   

库车坳陷克深气田致密砂岩储层构造裂缝形成序列与分布规律     

王珂  杨海军  李勇  张荣虎  杨学君  王俊鹏 《大地构造与成矿学》2020,(1):30-46

综合采用岩心、薄片和成像测井等资料,对库车坳陷克深气田白垩系巴什基奇克组构造裂缝的形成序列、分布规律和影响因素进行了研究。结果表明:剪切裂缝和张性裂缝在克深气田均有发育,以直立缝和高角度缝为主,主要形成于近南北向的挤压作用、背斜弯曲拱张作用和异常流体高压作用,微观裂缝切穿胶结物和部分颗粒,早期充填构造裂缝可在后期构造应力和异常流体高压作用下重新裂开成为有效裂缝。克深气田发育3期构造裂缝,其中第3期构造裂缝的形成时间与天然气大量充注期吻合,是工业规模性气藏形成的关键因素。单个断背斜高部位的构造应力低于背斜翼部,因此背斜高部位的构造裂缝线密度相对较低,但背斜弯曲变形使裂缝开度较大,有效性好,单井的无阻流量较高;翼部和断层附近构造裂缝线密度较大,但开度较小,有效性差;构造应力、岩石强度和变形时间的不同造成了构造裂缝特征在各气藏之间具有差异性。储层中部第3砂层组的构造裂缝发育程度中等,充填程度相对较低,并且平面上分布连续,可形成连片分布的储层“甜点”区,应成为克深气田开发中的重点层位。对克深气田构造裂缝起主要贡献作用的为水下分流河道和河口坝微相的粉‒细砂岩。  相似文献   

基于Ruger近似式预测裂缝型储层的可行性研究     

吴姗姗  高刚  桂志先  王鹏  李成毅 《煤田地质与勘探》2020,48(1):189-196

叠前纵波方位各向异性检测裂缝是目前应用最为广泛的方法，该方法主要是利用AVAZ地震资料椭圆拟合的长轴与短轴信息来评价裂缝，该方法在具体应用时，认为裂缝型储层AVAZ响应特征的变化仅由各向异性参数决定，而没有考虑非各向异性参数的影响，从而引起裂缝评价的多解性。为提高该技术的裂缝评价精度，从模型分析入手，将模型中各向异性参数及岩性参数设置为概率密度分布函数，然后采用Monte Carlo随机方法进行叠前AVAZ正演模拟。首先，对各向异性参数对椭圆拟合的影响进行简单分析，得出各向异性参数γ对椭圆扁率B/A与各向异性因子B影响最大、δ次之、ε最小。然后，进一步重点分析不同标准差的速度与密度模型的B/A与B响应特征，得出地层的速度与密度的变化在较小范围内时，该技术评价裂缝才具有一定的可行性，其中，地层纵波和横波速度的变化（尤其是纵波速度）对叠前AVAZ响应影响较大，地层密度几乎没有影响，故当横向岩性变化较大时，该方法在评价裂缝型储层时的结果具有一定的不确定性。   相似文献   

刘家峡水库西南部水域表层沉积物重金属污染评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘翔  郭建明  樊海龙  张生银  张顺存  雷天柱  王建丰 《沉积与特提斯地质》2020,40(4):1-10

为了研究刘家峡水库西南部水域表层沉积物中重金属的污染状况，对采集的55个表层沉积物样品中的6种重金属元素Cr、Cd、Ni、Cu、Zn和Pb的含量进行测试，其平均含量分别为77.03μg/g、0.16μg/g、33.53μg/g、32.09μg/g、291.77μg/g、22.44μg/g。在研究表层沉积物重金属含量空间分布的基础上，运用单因子污染指数法、内梅罗综合污染指数法、地累积指数法、潜在生态风险指数法，综合判断水库的受污染程度并对其潜在生态风险进行评估。6种元素的地累积指数排序依次为：Zn > Cu > Cd > Ni > Pb > Cr；潜在生态风险系数排序依次为：Cd > Cu > Pb > Zn > Ni > Cr；各区域重金属污染程度或潜在生态风险水平依次为黄河主河道 > 大夏河河口 > 黄河横剖面。综合4种方法的评价结果，认为对刘家峡水库西南部表层沉积物重金属污染及潜在生态风险评价贡献率较高的重金属污染因子是Zn、Cu和Cd；综合相关性分析与主成分分析，认为研究区沉积物重金属污染主要来源于两个方面：（1） Zn、Cu主要来源于生活污染或工业污染；（2） Cd主要来源于工农业活动产生的污染。  相似文献